So ran the headline of a business section article in the St. Petersburg Times yesterday.   It reported the story in Fortune's June 23 issue that notes that the housing downturn has one upside for retirees..  Six great markets for great deals  means "you don't have to go overseas anymore for your dream retirement home."  A disclaimer:  The "Bay Area" it refers to is NOT the San Francisco Bay Area where I lived for many years; we also refer to the west central Florida with the same name.

Indeed, the Fortune article includes among the six most promising markets for good deals is the Tampa Bay area which it claims "more than other markets..could be nicely positioned for a rebound."  It noted that Lawrence Yun, top economist for the National Association of Realtors, has singled our area area as "well prepped for price recovery, estimating 20% of more appreciation for the next five years."

That estimate is incredibly optimistic because so much depends on factors in the global macroeconomy that are largely out of our control.  But I do thoroughly agree with Fortune's conclusion: the Clearwater-St. Petersburg area is a prime spot now for high-end bargain hunters.  Gulf luxury condos, which might have gond for a minimum of $1million a few years ago, can now be snapped up in the $600,000 range."

  There were glimmers of hope this past week in two items that appeared in the informative blog that James Thorner, Real Estate editor of the St. Pete Times, maintains.

A May 16 news items reported that foreclosures were down 18% from March to April in Pinellas County even though they were up 63% from April 2007 to  April 2008.  A May 23 news item reported that Pending Sales were up for April in every county of the Tampa Bay area.

With the very large inventory of unsold properties and financial and credit problems still looming,  these news items are far too new and mild for us to call this the end of the local housing slump.   However,  they are the tentative positive glimmers of news in some time.  And, they tend to corroborate our own experience that there are more "shoppers" and potential buyers out and about in St. Pete now than a few months ago.

Thorner's column in the St. Pete Times for May 22 carried perhaps the most hopeful news of all for the longterm health of the Tampa Bay real estate market.  He cited statistics indicating that the decline in prices during the last two years means that now a majority of local households can now afford the average house.   According to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index, 60 percent of Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater households can  now afford the median priced home of $167,000.   As Thorner points out, this places our area about at the national average, ranking 114th out of 223 metro areas. The most affordable region was Kokomo, Indiana, where 95 percent of families can afford the median home price of $88,000.  And we compare favorably in affordability to Miami which places 217th out of 223 in the country with high median home prices and average incomes actually below Tampa Bay.

Past history suggests that this rising affordability index will help to reactivate migration to this desirable area and also encourage more renters to seek homes.  This should augur well  for the long-term future of Tampa Bay real estate!

 http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Banking/HomebuyingGuide/WhereARecessionH...

Go to: http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Banking/HomebuyingGuide/WhereARecessionH...

The bold headline on the front page of this morning's St. Pete Times business section is positive, "Housing Horizon Brightens--Well at least a little."  That appraisal--albeit lukewarm-- certanly represents at least a refreshing change of tone from the stream of negative headlines in the last few months. 

Both the local real estate market and the macroeconomic environment remain cloudy.   Past history suggests that such times may be the most opportune time to buy, at least for those who are in it for the long term.   If mortgage rates continue their downward movement as many expect, this will help make residential housing more affordable for the average buyer.  In the medium run, that should help stabilize prices as much as anything. Yes, there are potential signs of hope, but it would be foolish for anyone to buy in this market without throughly comparing many of the numerous properties currently on the market.

One lesson the run-up and then rapid demise of the recent boom market should have taught us is that "flipping" in the hopes of catching the market just right for immediate profits is quite dangerous.  On the other hand, residential real estate has for decades been the largest single source of personal wealth for most middle income Americans.  Keep that in perspective!  For some pertinent statistics on the historic growth of real estate wealth, be sure to visit the website of the National Association of Realtors.   They have an interesting article on "Building Wealth" that you can access at: http://www.realtor.org/pac.nsf/pages/pachome.  This NAR site provides evidence that fully 60% of the  average wealth of the American homeowner comes from equity in their home.  Because the long term building of net worth should be the primary financial goal for most people, that's why owning residential real estate should be a major strategy in reaching that goal. 

James Thorner, real estate columnist for the St. Petersburg Times, in today's business section reported  "vulture funds swooping in to grab distressed properties" in the Tampa Bay area.  He noted that, "Big private money from places like New York and Los Angeles has decided our carcass of a Florida housing market is ripe for some plucking."



Thorner uses extreme but colorful language in describing our current housing market as a "carcass".    Perhaps emaciated would be a better descriptor.   Nonetheless, it is indisputable that the market  has been less than robust for almost two years.   Perhaps  emaciated would be a more accurate descriptor.  And, until now there have been few signs of a turn-around.



This increased interest from outside "big money" interest may bode well for the future.   It is a sign that the worst drops in value may be over though that is small comfort to purchasers in recent years who have lost most or all of their equity.  However, it  demonstrates that the long-term desirable qualities of this region, St. Petersburg, and adjacent beach communities is obviously  apparent to the outside world.  Why else would such savvy big-league investors from outside the area be putting their money into residential properties here? 



One positive attribute about real estate is the miracle of leverage that makes it open to savvy small investors also.   Although you may not want to pick bones like a vulture,  early 2008 will be the time to begin looking for good spots to try and build some future muscle on that emaciated body!